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Market Brief – Thursday 12/2/21

Stocks were flat in overnight trading but shot out of the gate to the upside after the opening bell. Treasury yields fell in overnight trading but were immediately bid higher during the open. Stocks and yields rose in early trading. Initial unemployment claims rose +28k to +222 last week, well within historical norms for a … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 12/1/21

Stocks and Treasury yields started the day higher as investors attempted to undo yesterday’s big decline in overnight trading. Mortgage applications fell -7.2% as purchase rose +5.1% and refinance applications fell -14.8%. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change rose +534k in November. The Markit Manufacturing PMI expanded at a slower rate to 58.3 in November. Construction Spending … Read more

Market Brief – Tuesday 11/30/21

Stocks and Treasury yields started the day lower and both were falling in early trading. Home prices rose +0.9% in September and +17.7% from this time last year. The Chicago PMI expanded at a slower rate in November to 61.8 from 68.4 last month. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey showed consumers are less confident … Read more

Market Brief – Monday 11/29/21

Stocks started the day higher as investors shrugged off any concerns about a new Coronavirus variant to buy the Friday dip in stocks. Treasury yields started the day higher as well but were heading lower in early trading. Pending home sales rose 7.5% in October and -4.7% from this time last year. Stocks and Treasury … Read more

The Dollar is About to Rally

Investors betting on higher inflation and a weaker dollar are about to be very wrong. Money poured into risk assets on the assumption that the Federal Reserve is printing money through its Quantitative Easing program, which could not be further from the truth. The dollar is about to shoot higher, and investors are completely unprepared … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 11/26/21

Stocks and Treasury yields started the day lower as fears of a new Coronavirus variant that is immune to the vaccines put the markets in a risk-off mood. Stocks and Treasury yields closed lower on this shortened holiday trading day.

Market Brief – Wednesday 11/24/21

Stocks and Treasury yields started the day lower as investors digested the likely end of QE as initial claims fell. Mortgage applications rose +1.8% last week as purchase applications rose +4.7% and refinance applications rose +0.4%. Initial claims normalized as they fell to -199k last week. Total claims, including all forms of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, … Read more

Market Brief – Tuesday 11/23/21

Stocks fell in overnight trading and Treasury yields rose in overnight trading for the second consecutive day. The Markit preliminary Manufacturing PMI expanded at a slightly faster rate to 59.1 in November and the preliminary Services PMI expanded at a slightly slower rate to 57.0 in November, bringing the preliminary Composite PMI down slightly to … Read more

Market Brief – Monday 11/22/21

Stocks and Treasury yields rose in overnight trading and held their overnight move going into the opening bell after President Biden nominated Powell to keep the Fed Chair seat. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved back into expansion territory at +0.76 in October after contracting the month before. Existing home sales rose +0.8% in … Read more

The Truth About Taper

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated the economy had met the committee’s targets to begin reducing the pace of its U.S. Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Security purchases by $15 billion per month. While history has shown that Treasury yields fall while the Fed is engaged in a balance sheet taper, the market initially reacted … Read more