Debt-based economies require a continuous expansion of debt to survive since economic growth is based on the rate in which the debt expands. It is the private sector debt that matters, not the public sector debt since the private sector creates economic growth to fund the public sector. When the expansion of private-sector debt slows, … Read more
Following Wednesday’s market close, President Trump signed the Hong Kong bill which China immediately responded that they will retaliate. So far, China has not retaliated nor has there been a leak of what the retaliation might be. South Korean Industrial Production fell -1.7% in October and -2.5% from a year ago. South Korean Retail Sales … Read more
In overnight trading, China Industrial Profits fell the most since 2011 as year-to-date in October industrial profits are down -2.9% and -9.9% from this time a year ago. Industrial profits have fallen four out of the past six months. Normally industrial profits are rising this time of the year ahead of the holiday season, which … Read more
Stocks started the day higher after the futures market rose following a phone call between the U.S. and China last night. Stocks and Treasury yields later rose in early trading, after yields fell in overnight trading after President Trump tweeted that we are in the final stages of inking a trade deal. Despite the brief … Read more
Stocks started the day higher on a report that both sides were very close to a “Phase One” trade deal that will include a rollback in some of the tariffs, but the bond market didn’t buy the news as Treasury yields fell in early trading led by the long end of the curve. Thirty-year Treasury … Read more
Every quarter the Fed surveys senior loan officers from 76 domestic and 22 foreign banks about their lending practices, which includes standards, terms on and demand for bank loans over the prior three months. The Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) is a lagging indicator since it looks at the prior three months, but it appears … Read more
While global preliminary factory surveys are showing a continued contraction, they are being overshadowed by trade war news, as most experts agree the end of the trade war will signal a rebound in the global economy, even though it won’t. The trade war would need to be the reason U.S. consumers are spending less, but … Read more
With only one dissenting vote, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Senate’s version of the Hong Kong bill on Wednesday afternoon. The bill could go to President Trump to sign as early as Thursday, which he is expected to. The passage of this bill could lead to a confrontation with China and derail the … Read more
In overnight trading, Japan exports in October fell -9.2% from a year ago and imports fell -14.8% from a year ago. German Producer Price Index fell -0.2% in October and -0.6% from a year ago, as the German economy is exporting deflation. The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a bill supporting pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. … Read more
Housing starts and permits rebounded from September’s steep decline as housing starts rose +3.8% in October and +8.5% from a year ago. Permits increased +5.0% in October and rose +14.1% from a year ago. Both starts and permits for September were revised higher. Builders remain optimistic despite consumer sentiment surveys which show buying conditions for … Read more