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Here Comes the Taper

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to announce a balance sheet taper timeline on November 3rd after their two-day meeting. Bond investors are suddenly nervous as the Fed has been putting an artificial floor under the bond market. Oddly, Treasury yields seem to fall, rather considerably, when the Fed is tapering its balance … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 10/29/21

Stocks slipped in overnight trading as Treasury yields were jammed higher. Stocks were down slightly in early trading while Treasury yields recovered their overnight gains and continued lower in early trading. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose +0.3% in September and rose +4.4% from this time last year. Excluding food and energy, Core PCE rose +0.2% … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 10/28/21

Stocks rose in overnight trading while Treasury yields were flat in overnight trading. Both were higher in early trading. Initial unemployment claims fell to +281k last week and total claims, including all forms of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, fell -448k to 2.820 million GDP growth slowed to +2.0% in the third quarter, missing expectations. Real consumer … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 10/27/21

Stocks fell slightly in overnight trading and were holding their overnight decline in early trading. Treasury yields collapsed after the Bank of Canada announced a premature ending of its Quantitative Easing program. Mortgage applications rose +0.3% last week as purchase applications rose +3.5% and refinance applications fell -1.6%. Durable goods orders fell -0.4% in September … Read more

Market Brief – Tuesday 10/26/21

Stocks gapped higher as Tesla’s stock rallied in overnight trading. Stocks headed higher in early trading before reversing direction. Treasury yields fell in overnight trading, then rose in early trading, before heading lower again. Home prices rose +1.0% in August and +18.5% from this time last year. New home sales rose +14.0% in August, smashing … Read more

Market Brief – Monday 10/25/21

Stocks gapped higher ahead of more tech earnings this week but were struggling to hold their overnight gains in early trading. Treasury yields rose in overnight trading but quickly fell in early trading to erase their overnight gains. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index showed the national economy contracted in October with a -0.13 print. … Read more

Crude Will Crash the Recovery

As the U.S. economy attempts to exit the pandemic, the stakes could not be higher. Investors are convicted that stock prices are at the bottom of a secular Bull market and will only go higher. The Federal Reserve is talking about tapering their balance sheet in the coming months, which is something they have never … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 10/22/21

Stocks dipped in overnight trading and were holding their overnight decline in early trading. Treasury yields fell in overnight trading and extended their decline in early trading. The Markit preliminary Composite PMI expanded at a slightly faster rate in October with the Manufacturing PMI expanding at the same rate as last month and the Services … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 10/21/21

Stocks fell slightly in overnight trading but investors were trying to press stocks higher in early trading in hopes of another big move higher in prices. Treasury yields rose slightly in overnight trading and sellers continued to drive yields higher in early trading. Initial unemployment claims remain below 300k as 290k Americans filed claims last … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 10/20/21

Stocks and Treasury yields gapped higher in overnight trading as investors feel more confident about future growth and inflation. Mortgage applications fell -6.3% last week as purchase applications fell -4.8% and refinance applications fell -7.1%. The Department of Energy reported crude oil inventories as Crude: -431k (+1.857mm expected), Cushing: -2.320mm, Gasoline: -5.368mm (-1.267mm expected), and … Read more