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Consumer Confidence is Crashing

Consumers as less confident lately and for good reasons. The broad economy is slowing, the pandemic has not ended, and the extended unemployment benefits are gone. What hope they do have is there are nearly eleven million jobs openings according to the government but one in six of those jobs is a low-paying hospitality job. … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 9/24/21

Stocks started the day slightly higher but were struggling in early trading to extend their overnight gains. Global government bonds saw selling in overnight trading sending Treasury yields higher as investors fear central bank balance sheet tapering will lead to higher interest rates. New home sales rose +1.5% or 740k homes in August and -24.3% … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 9/24/21

Stocks roared out of the gate as it was risk-on in overnight trading which spilled over into early trading. Treasury yields were slammed back to their highs of the last three days where buyers have been holding. Initial claims rose to +351k and total claims, including all forms of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, fell -856k to … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 9/22/21

Stocks rose in overnight trading as investors shrug off fears that China’s real estate market will face a global meltdown. Treasury yields were flat ahead of today’s FOMC press conference where investors believe the Fed will announce a balance sheet taper beginning in November. Mortgage applications rose +4.9% last week as purchase applications rose +2.2% … Read more

Market Brief – Tuesday 9/21/21

It was risk-on in overnight trading as stocks rallied and Treasury yields rose slightly. Stocks gave back their overnight gains in early trading and Treasury yields falling from their overnight move higher. Building permits rose +6.0% in August to 1.728 million permits and housing starts rose +3.9% in August to 1.615 million units. Today’s $24 … Read more

Market Brief – Monday 9/20/21

Stocks and Treasury yields fell in overnight trading as fears of Evergrande’s contagion spreading caused a flight to safety. Stocks continued to slide in early trading while Treasury yields were holding their overnight decline. Stocks and Treasury yields closed lower on the day after a rough day where dip buyers were unable to reverse the … Read more

The Fed’s SRPs Are Working

In late July the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made the Federal Reserve’s domestic and international repurchase agreement facilities permanent. Referred to as Standing Repo Programs (SRPs), many believed the FOMC made these facilities permanent in anticipation of a balance sheet taper. I thought the SRPs had nothing to do with a potential balance sheet … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 9/17/21

Stocks started the day lower and were extending their decline in early trading as liquidity appears to be drying up. Treasury yields were slammed higher in overnight trading and extended their rise in early trading as sellers continue to bet on inflation. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey missed expectations as it fell below … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 9/16/21

Stocks dipped slightly in overnight trading and were sliding in early trading. Treasury yields were slammed higher in overnight trading following the retail sales report and were holding their overnight rise in early trading. Initial claims rose unexpectedly last week to +332k. Total claims, including all forms of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, rose +179k to 12.107 … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 9/15/21

Stocks started the day higher and were up slightly in early trading. Treasury yields were flat in overnight trading but sellers were busy driving yields back up in early trading as they continue to up their bets on inflation taking interest rates higher. Mortgage applications rose +0.3% last week as purchase applications rose +7.5% and … Read more