I’m pleased to share an update on recent market developments and the strategic positioning of Portfolio Shield™ for September 2026.
Over the past month, equities finished slightly higher and bonds finished slightly lower. Stocks continued to trade in a sideways range. I still think they can move higher from here, but rising energy prices—especially gasoline and diesel—remain a meaningful headwind. The national average for regular gasoline stayed above $4 per gallon every day in August, putting the month on track for the most expensive August on record at the pump. Diesel has been even more punishing, recently near $5.60 a gallon and well above year-ago levels. That raises costs for households and for the freight system that moves goods through the economy.
In recent years we have seen episodes—most clearly the 2022 correction—preceded by rising energy prices. That history suggests that if gasoline and diesel continue to climb from here, we could be approaching the cusp of another correction.
There is a similar relationship between rising gasoline and diesel prices and rising interest rates. Recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of the Treasury’s longer-dated buyback operations, with the larger purchases beginning in September, and indicated that the Treasury General Account—now built to roughly $950 billion—could be used to support purchases of long-term Treasuries in the open market. The intent was to put a floor under the long bond, and that message appears to be working, at least at the margin.
The other constraint on higher interest rates is weakening demand for credit. As yields have risen, lending demand has continued to fade. That is visible in housing, where new home sales, existing home sales, and pending home sales have all declined for consecutive months. Without demand for borrowing at higher rates, there is a natural limit to how far yields can rise. When lending demand slows, large commercial banks often step in as buyers of bonds. They began increasing their exposure to Treasury securities in mid-August.
For these reasons, the strategy will remain unchanged for September. I will monitor conditions closely and adjust as needed. A minimal cash position of approximately 0.3% will be maintained across all models.
As a reminder, all Portfolio Shield™ models are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, and new funds received are invested according to your selected model at that time. If you wish to adjust your strategy or risk level, please contact us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six consecutive months may be closed, and the associated advisory agreement terminated.
We remain fully committed to your financial success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions, to discuss your Portfolio Shield™ strategy, or to inform us of any changes in your financial situation or objectives so we can continue providing the most suitable guidance.
Thank you for your continued trust. We are dedicated to managing your Portfolio Shield™ with discipline and care as we work together toward your long-term financial goals.
Steven Van Metre
