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Portfolio Shield – August 2023

We are pleased to see the equity allocation continues to perform extremely well this year, particularly due to the recent outperformance of the Nasdaq-100 relative to the broad market. Looking forward, the equity allocation is likely to remain unhedged for the next three months unless there is a major shift in the markets. The new … Read more

Portfolio Shield – July 2023

We are pleased to see the equity allocation continues to perform extremely well this year, particularly due to the recent outperformance of the Nasdaq-100 relative to the broad market. Over the past two months, the long-term bond hedge in the equity allocation had a negative contribution to returns but it was more than offset by … Read more

Portfolio Shield – June 2023

We are pleased to see the equity allocation continues to perform extremely well this year, particularly due to the recent outperformance of the Nasdaq-100 relative to the broad market. Over the past month, the long-term bond hedge in the equity allocation had a negative contribution to returns but it was more than offset by the … Read more

Portfolio Shield – May 2023

We are pleased to see the equity allocation has been performing extremely well this year and that the changes in the bond allocation are having a positive contribution to the returns. For the past year, stocks have trended sideways which signifies a lack of market direction and uncertainty. The lack of significant positive or negative … Read more

Portfolio Shield – April 2023

Even though the stock market appears to be moving on from the banking crisis, the bond market was never fooled. The inverted yield curves suggested something bad was likely to happen and now that the curves are steepening, they are indicating a recession, despite what the equity markets indicate, is nearly a sure thing. The … Read more

Portfolio Shield – March 2023

Jeff and I continue to believe that stocks are likely to rally over the next several months as the stock market historically moves based on the anticipated direction of the Federal Funds Rate rather than the underlying economic fundamentals. Our base case remains that stocks are likely to go higher when the market believes the … Read more

Portfolio Shield – February 2023

Jeff and I believe that stocks and long-term bonds are likely to rally over the next several months especially if the market believes the Fed is soon to stop raising the Federal Funds Rate. Portfolio Shield™ is currently positioned to take advantage of a rally in stocks and a decline in interest rates. Our view … Read more

Portfolio Shield – January 2023

Jeff and I continue to believe the most likely path is a rally in stocks and longer-term bonds over the next several months, especially should the Fed slow the pace of rate hikes. We will know more on February 1 when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its latest policy statement. Portfolio Shield™ is positioned … Read more

Portfolio Shield – December 2022

Last month Portfolio Shield™ removed its bond hedge and Jeff and I both agreed to remove the additional downside hedging on the equity funds to allow the strategy to run with the Bulls. At the same time, we implemented an additional momentum overlay on the bond allocation which added a position in high-yield bonds. We … Read more

Portfolio Shield – November 2022

After putting in a strong performance for September, Portfolio Shield™ began hedging further downside risk into October. A late October stock rally and a further decline in bonds saw the strategy give back some of its hard-earned gains from the prior month. Early-stage Bear markets are very difficult for momentum strategies. Momentum strategies perform optimally … Read more