The decision to hedge the equity allocation with short-term Treasuries proved beneficial in February. However, our subsequent move to switch the hedge to long-term bonds while shifting the bond allocation to intermediate-term bonds has proven premature, as short-term interest rates have risen in recent weeks.

We are now entering what could be a particularly challenging period for both portfolio managers and investors. Two distinct negative forces are converging on the markets:

First, we are experiencing the largest oil shock in decades, triggered by disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Sustained high oil prices increase the risk of a recession—the longer they persist, the greater the threat. History is instructive here: four of the five U.S. recessions since the 1970s were preceded by major oil shocks.

Compounding this is an economy that was already showing signs of strain before the conflict escalated. Consumers had begun pulling back on spending as wage growth failed to keep pace with inflation, and the labor market has weakened meaningfully. The net number of jobs created over the past ten months has turned negative, according to recent BLS Nonfarm Payroll reports.

For businesses, tariffs have squeezed margins, forcing many to contemplate passing on higher costs to customers who are already stretched. At the same time, companies are likely to cut staff and hours further in an effort to protect profitability.

Second, these pressures are pushing the economy toward stagflation—a toxic mix of rising prices, slowing growth, and increasing unemployment. The latest S&P Global flash PMI surveys for March confirm we are in the early stages of this dynamic, with business activity slowing (particularly in services) while input costs and selling prices have spiked amid energy-driven supply pressures.

The likely outcome of either an extended oil shock or entrenched stagflation is a recession and a bear market in equities. In more severe cases, as seen in 2008, this can escalate into a broader financial crisis.

Navigating the early phase of an oil shock that is amplifying the stagflationary signals we observed a few months ago is inherently difficult. Historically, both stocks and interest rates tend to decline in these environments. The immediate challenge is that we are currently seeing a short-term rise in rates, even as longer-term pressures point lower. Timing these shifts with precision is impossible.

Move too early (as we did with duration extension), and you must wait patiently for the market to recognize that slowing growth will eventually ease inflationary pressures.

Move too late, and you risk missing the sharp initial rally in bonds that often occurs once the market and policymakers acknowledge they are behind the curve.

At the start of the month, based on all available information, I believed extending the duration of both the hedge and the bond allocation was the most prudent step to mitigate downside risk from a potential bear market—or worse, a financial crisis.

What changed was the messaging from central bankers, who indicated they might need to raise rates in response to the supply shock. Markets have taken them at their word for now, even though one or two weaker payroll reports could quickly shift expectations back toward easing.

In hindsight, the better decision would have been to maintain the shorter-duration hedge and bond allocation in Treasuries.

In the short term, this means our strategy has not fully protected against the equity downside I correctly anticipated. That said, I continue to believe the downside risk in long-term bonds remains limited relative to that in equities.

On Tuesday, the landscape shifted meaningfully when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed Iran’s “necessary will” to end the war, albeit while seeking guarantees and reparations. While a quick resolution remains unlikely given the positions of all parties, this development raises the possibility of negotiations and has already prompted a positive market reaction, including a relief rally in stocks and softening in oil prices.

Compounding this technical opportunity, investors and money managers have built very large short positions over the past month to protect against downside risk. In addition, several CTA and systematic strategies appear poised to flip from short to long on any sustained positive momentum. These positioning dynamics could generate meaningful upward pressure and potentially amplify any near-term rally in equities.

Adding to the short-term constructive backdrop, the recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey showed improving views on the labor market, which was reinforced on Wednesday by the ADP payroll report. Despite higher energy prices, retail sales rose to their highest level in eight months, supported by tax refund-driven spending. In the near term, this pickup in consumer optimism and spending is likely to be viewed as bullish for equities.

Given this shift in the short-term opportunity set, I have decided to remove the equity hedge for the month of April. This tactical adjustment allows Portfolio Shield to participate in potential upside. The bond allocation will switch to high yield bonds for April. We will continue to monitor market conditions closely and stand ready to reinstate the equity hedge promptly if downside risks reassert themselves. A minimal cash position of approximately 0.3% will be maintained across all models.

It should be noted that regardless of market conditions, the strategy was designed to hold an equity allocation as it is not designed to time markets but to hedge downside risks.

Utilizing the latest Artificial Intelligence tools, I have been working diligently to build out the optimization engine to determine what is the optimal design for equity allocation, bond allocation, and hedging mechanism.

We tested different time windows for measuring volatility and momentum across the 2020-2025 period. Our optimization found that using a shorter volatility window with a longer return lookback provides better risk-adjusted returns. This allows the strategy to react more quickly to changing market conditions while still capturing meaningful trends.

We tested multiple approaches for when to include protective assets, from long-term Treasuries (as it is now), to gold, the dollar and even inverse-like funds, in the portfolio when it hedges. Our optimization found that the existing hedge was still the best choice but by adding gold when long-term bonds didn’t qualify, it provided better downside protection.

For the fixed income portion, we optimized how we choose between Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds, high-yield bonds, or Short-Term Treasury Bills. We determined that a dynamic bond selection utilizing a dual momentum strategy adapts to interest rate and credit conditions better, generates higher returns and lower drawdowns.

We have started implementing these improvements.

As a reminder, all Portfolio Shield models are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, and new funds received are invested according to your selected model at that time. If you wish to adjust your strategy or risk level, please contact us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six consecutive months may be closed, and the associated advisory agreement terminated.

We remain fully committed to your financial success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions, to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy, or to inform us of any changes in your financial situation or objectives so we can continue providing the most suitable guidance.

Thank you for your continued trust. We are dedicated to managing your Portfolio Shield with discipline and care as we work together toward your long-term financial goals.

Steven Van Metre

Last month’s decision to hedge the equity allocation with short-term Treasuries proved beneficial, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 posted modest declines.

The risks of a market correction continue to build as equity trends have shifted to the downside, warranting a more defensive hedge for the coming month. High-yield bonds also declined modestly and are showing signs of weakness amid growing concerns in the private credit sector.

In light of these risks, Portfolio Shield will adopt a more cautious stance in March by shifting its equity hedge from short-term to long-term Treasuries. The equity allocation will remain largely unchanged aside from this hedge adjustment. Applying a similar defensive approach, the bond allocation will transition from high-yield bonds to intermediate-term Treasuries. A minimal cash position of 0.3% will be maintained across all models.

It should be noted that regardless of market conditions, the strategy was designed to hold an equity allocation as it is not designed to time markets but to hedge downside risks.

Utilizing the latest Artificial Intelligence tools, I have been working diligently to build out the optimization engine to determine what is the optimal design for equity allocation, bond allocation, and hedging mechanism.

We tested different time windows for measuring volatility and momentum across the 2020-2025 period. Our optimization found that using a shorter volatility window with a longer return lookback provides better risk-adjusted returns. This allows the strategy to react more quickly to changing market conditions while still capturing meaningful trends.

We tested multiple approaches for when to include protective assets, from long-term Treasuries (as it is now), to gold, the dollar and even inverse-like funds, in the portfolio when it hedges. Our optimization found that the existing hedge was still the best choice but by adding gold when long-term bonds didn’t qualify, it provided better downside protection.

For the fixed income portion, we optimized how we choose between Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds, high-yield bonds, or Short-Term Treasury Bills. We determined that a dynamic bond selection utilizing a dual momentum strategy adapts to interest rate and credit conditions better, generates higher returns and lower drawdowns.

We have started implementing these improvements.

As a reminder, all Portfolio Shield models are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, and new funds received are invested according to your selected model at that time. If you wish to adjust your strategy or risk level, please contact us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six consecutive months may be closed, and the associated advisory agreement terminated.

We remain fully committed to your financial success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions, to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy, or to inform us of any changes in your financial situation or objectives so we can continue providing the most suitable guidance.

Thank you for your continued trust. We are dedicated to managing your Portfolio Shield with discipline and care as we work together toward your long-term financial goals.

Steven Van Metre

With earnings season for the Magnificent 7 now behind us, the market appears priced for perfection. The risk of a near-term correction currently outweighs the likelihood of an immediate breakout to new all-time highs.

The S&P 500 advanced modestly to a new record high in January before pulling back, but it is the Nasdaq-100 that raises greater concern. Technology stocks have remained range-bound for nearly three months, and Wall Street is showing signs of diminishing confidence in AI-driven growth.

Additional warning signals come from Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, which reveals cash allocations at their lowest level in over twenty years and little evidence of downside hedging among managers. The firm’s Bull & Bear Indicator is also flashing an extreme bullish reading—a classic contrarian sell signal. Meanwhile, short interest across the broad equity market sits at a twenty-year low.

These conditions suggest that investors are fully invested and largely dismissive of downside risk. Historically, such extreme positioning and sentiment have preceded corrections rather than sustained rallies.

On a more positive note, high-yield bonds rallied in January and show no signs of imminent credit stress.

Given these risks, Portfolio Shield will adopt a cautious stance in February by implementing a hedge. Rather than using long-term Treasuries—the traditional equity hedge—the strategy will hedge with short-term Treasuries.

For February, the equity allocation will be reduced in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to accommodate a 31% position in short-term Treasuries. The bond allocation remains unchanged and fully invested in high-yield bonds. A minimal cash position of 0.3% will be maintained across all models.

Utilizing the latest Artificial Intelligence tools, I have been working diligently to build out the optimization engine to determine what is the optimal design for equity allocation, bond allocation, and hedging mechanism.

We tested different time windows for measuring volatility and momentum across the 2020-2025 period. Our optimization found that using a shorter volatility window with a longer return lookback provides better risk-adjusted returns. This allows the strategy to react more quickly to changing market conditions while still capturing meaningful trends.

We tested multiple approaches for when to include protective assets, from long-term Treasuries (as it is now), to gold, the dollar and even inverse-like funds, in the portfolio when it hedges. Our optimization found that the existing hedge was still the best choice but by adding gold when long-term bonds didn’t qualify, it provided better downside protection.

For the fixed income portion, we optimized how we choose between Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds, high-yield bonds, or Short-Term Treasury Bills. We determined that a dynamic bond selection utilizing a dual momentum strategy adapts to interest rate and credit conditions better, generates higher returns and lower drawdowns.

I am looking forward to implementing these improvements in 2026.

As a reminder, all Portfolio Shield models are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, and new funds received are invested according to your selected model at that time. If you wish to adjust your strategy or risk level, please contact us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six consecutive months may be closed, and the associated advisory agreement terminated.

We remain fully committed to your financial success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions, to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy, or to inform us of any changes in your financial situation or objectives so we can continue providing the most suitable guidance.

Thank you for your continued trust. We are dedicated to managing your Portfolio Shield with discipline and care as we work together toward your long-term financial goals.

Steven Van Metre

Following last month’s mild correction, equities rallied to new all-time highs before slightly pulling back in the final week of the year. Despite signs of a gradually slowing economy and a softening labor market, Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support strong risk appetite, with investors aggressively buying dips on the belief that the Fed is injecting liquidity into the markets.

The market believes that the labor market will hold and inflation will cool which is the driving force behind risk assets. However, if the labor market continues to weaken, the odds of recession and a subsequent Bear market increase significantly.

Fixed-income markets were slightly weaker in November, with both high-yield and intermediate-term Treasures posting small declines. Momentum for intermediate-term Treasuries has turned negative, supporting its removal from the portfolio.

For January, your portfolio remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, unchanged from last month. The bond allocation is now fully invested in high-yield bonds. A minimal cash position of 0.3% is maintained across all models.

Given the ongoing equity strength, Portfolio Shield will maintain its risk-on posture without hedging in the near term. Forward-looking indicators currently suggest the earliest hedging is likely in May 2026; however, we stand ready to act sooner if conditions warrant. For now, the robust performance of equities justifies full allocation.

Utilizing the latest Artificial Intelligence tools, I have been working diligently to build out the optimization engine to determine what is the optimal design for equity allocation, bond allocation, and hedging mechanism.

We tested different time windows for measuring volatility and momentum across the 2020-2025 period. Our optimization found that using a shorter volatility window with a longer return lookback provides better risk-adjusted returns. This allows the strategy to react more quickly to changing market conditions while still capturing meaningful trends.

We tested multiple approaches for when to include protective assets, from long-term Treasuries (as it is now), to gold, the dollar and even inverse-like funds, in the portfolio when it hedges. Our optimization found that the existing hedge was still the best choice but by adding gold when long-term bonds didn’t qualify, it provided better downside protection.

For the fixed income portion, we optimized how we choose between Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds, high-yield bonds, or Short-Term Treasury Bills. We determined that a dynamic bond selection utilizing a dual momentum strategy adapts to interest rate and credit conditions better, generates higher returns and lower drawdowns.

I am looking forward to implementing these improvements in 2026.

As a reminder, all Portfolio Shield models are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, and new funds received are invested according to your selected model at that time. If you wish to adjust your strategy or risk level, please contact us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six consecutive months may be closed, and the associated advisory agreement terminated.

We remain fully committed to your financial success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions, to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy, or to inform us of any changes in your financial situation or objectives so we can continue providing the most suitable guidance.

Thank you for your continued trust. We are dedicated to managing your Portfolio Shield with discipline and care as we work together toward your long-term financial goals.

Equities experienced a modest correction in November but recovered most losses by month-end. Despite signs of a gradually slowing economy and a softening labor market, Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support strong risk appetite, with investors aggressively buying dips.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for mid-December. Recent commentary from Fed officials points to a likely pause in rate cuts, even as markets continue to price in a December reduction. Should labor-market conditions deteriorate further, however, the probability of a January cut would rise sharply.

History is a useful guide here: when the Fed cuts rates primarily in response to labor-market weakness rather than pre-emptively, the odds of recession and a subsequent bear market increase significantly.

Fixed-income markets were modestly weaker in November, with both high-yield and intermediate-term bonds posting small declines. Momentum in these sectors remains constructive, supporting their continued inclusion in the portfolio.

For December, your portfolio remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, unchanged from last month. High-yield and intermediate-term bond allocations are also unchanged. A minimal cash position of 0.3% is maintained across all models.

Given the ongoing equity strength, Portfolio Shield will maintain its risk-on posture without hedging in the near term. Forward-looking indicators currently suggest the earliest hedging is likely in May 2026; however, we stand ready to act sooner if conditions warrant. For now, the robust performance of equities justifies full allocation.

I continue to enhance Portfolio Shield through ongoing AI development of the underlying trading program. A key upgrade this month: decisions to include or exclude high-yield and intermediate-term bonds are now driven exclusively by my Ultimate Meta Strategy, which requires multi-strategy consensus before any change is implemented.

The Ultimate Meta Strategy is currently optimized for 10-day forward returns but can be adjusted as market dynamics evolve. Going forward, its signals fully replace the previous momentum indicators from the original Momentum Timer Pro algorithm.

Additional refinements are in progress, including the development of a dedicated longer-horizon optimization engine that will better align entry and exit points with the strategy’s long-term investment objectives.

I will keep you informed as these enhancements are completed.

As a reminder, all Portfolio Shield models are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, and new funds received are invested according to your selected model at that time. If you wish to adjust your strategy or risk level, please contact us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six consecutive months may be closed, and the associated advisory agreement terminated.

We remain fully committed to your financial success. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions, to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy, or to inform us of any changes in your financial situation or objectives so we can continue providing the most suitable guidance.

Thank you for your continued trust. We are dedicated to managing your Portfolio Shield with discipline and care as we work together toward your long-term financial goals.

Despite a gradually slowing economy and weakening labor market, Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to fuel euphoria in stocks. However, risks persist. Historically, if the Fed is cutting due to labor market weakness, the odds of a recession and a bear market increase significantly.

High-yield and intermediate-term bonds both were mostly unchanged last month. Momentum for these asset classes remains positive, supporting their continued inclusion in the portfolio.

For November, your portfolio remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, consistent with last month’s positioning. The high-yield and intermediate-term bond allocations also remain unchanged. A minimal cash allocation of 0.3 percent is maintained across all models.

Given the current market strength, the strategy will maintain its risk-on stance without hedging in the near term. Forward-looking indicators suggest the earliest the strategy will hedge is April or May, however if market conditions change, that timeline could move up. We are prepared to adapt swiftly if conditions shift, but the robust equity performance justifies full allocation for now.

I have been diligently working to AI-enhance Portfolio Shield through improvements to my trading program. The decision to add or remove high-yield or intermediate-term bonds from the bond allocation is now based on my Ultimate Meta Strategy which requires a multi-strategy consensus to determine if either security should be added or removed from the allocation.

Currently, the Ultimate Meta Strategy is optimized for 10-day forward returns, though it can be modified as needed. Going forward, the Ultimate Meta Strategy’s recommendations will replace the prior momentum signals from the original Momentum Timer Pro algorithm.

Further refinements to the trading program are underway before I can build a separate optimization engine focused on longer-term forward-looking return entry points. This will better align with the long-term investment objectives of the strategy.

I’ll continue to update you as progress is made.

Please note that all strategies are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, with new funds invested according to your selected model at that time. To adjust your investment strategy, please notify us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six months or longer may be closed, and any applicable advisory agreements terminated.

We remain dedicated to your financial success. If you have questions or wish to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy further, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Additionally, please inform us of any changes to your financial circumstances so we can tailor our recommendations to your needs. Accurate and complete information ensures we provide the most effective investment guidance.

Thank you for entrusting us with your investments. We are committed to managing your Portfolio Shield with precision and care to help you achieve your financial aspirations.

Despite a gradually slowing economy and weakening labor market, Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to fuel euphoria in stocks. However, risks persist. Historically, stocks can rally for up to three months following rate cuts, but a weakening labor market could signal the onset of a bear market.

High-yield and intermediate-term bonds both delivered strong returns last month, bolstering the overall bond allocation. Momentum for these asset classes remains positive, supporting their continued inclusion in the portfolio.

For October, your portfolio remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, consistent with last month’s positioning. The high-yield and intermediate-term bond allocations also remain unchanged. A minimal cash allocation of 0.3 percent is maintained across all models.

Given the current market strength, the strategy will maintain its risk-on stance without hedging in the near term. We are prepared to adapt swiftly if conditions shift, but the robust equity performance justifies full allocation for now.

I have been diligently working to AI-enhance Portfolio Shield through improvements to my trading program. Previously, decisions to add or remove high-yield or intermediate-term bonds from the bond allocation were based on momentum signals generated by my Momentum Timer Pro formulas.

Since my last update, with the help of AI, I have developed an optimization program that tailors strategies on a per-security basis. This has led to significant improvements in signal generation.

I now have ten optimized strategies integrated into the trading program. With AI assistance, I have combined them into a Meta Strategy that weights each based on their relative strength for both entry and exit points.

Currently, the Meta Strategy is optimized for 10-day forward returns, though it can be modified as needed. Going forward, the Meta Strategy’s recommendations will replace the prior momentum signals from the original Momentum Timer Pro algorithm.

Further refinements to the trading program are underway before I can build a separate optimization engine focused on longer-term forward-looking return entry points. This will better align with the long-term investment objectives of the strategy.

I’ll continue to update you as progress is made.

Please note that all strategies are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, with new funds invested according to your selected model at that time. To adjust your investment strategy, please notify us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six months or longer may be closed, and any applicable advisory agreements terminated.

We remain dedicated to your financial success. If you have questions or wish to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy further, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Additionally, please inform us of any changes to your financial circumstances so we can tailor our recommendations to your needs. Accurate and complete information ensures we provide the most effective investment guidance.

Thank you for entrusting us with your investments. We are committed to managing your Portfolio Shield with precision and care to help you achieve your financial aspirations.

Best regards,

Steven Van Metre

Despite a gradually slowing economy, several factors support a positive outlook for equities. Corporate earnings exceeded expectations this quarter, the trade war is coming to an end, and Trump’s tax bill has been enacted, fostering market optimism. However, risks remain.

The Nonfarm Payroll report, due Friday, is expected to show further labor market weakening, and the QCEW revisions next week may reveal the Bureau of Labor Statistics overstated payrolls by hundreds of thousands of jobs.

While investors anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, its impact on equities may be limited. Historically, stocks rally for three months following rate cuts, but a weakening labor market could signal the start of a bear market.

High-yield bonds delivered strong returns last month, enhancing the bond allocation. Momentum for intermediate-term bonds turned positive, leading to their inclusion in the September bond allocation.

For September, your portfolio remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, consistent with last month. The high-yield bond allocation has been reduced to 57 percent, with the remainder in intermediate-term Treasuries. A minimal cash allocation of 0.3 percent is maintained across all models.

Given current market strength, the strategy will maintain its risk-on stance without hedging in the near term. We are prepared to adapt if market conditions shift, but strong equity performance supports full allocation for now.

In previous updates, I mentioned engaging a programmer to develop a custom rotational strategy. While those efforts did not meet expectations, I’m excited to share a promising development. Advances in artificial intelligence have enabled me to create sophisticated programs without extensive coding expertise. I’ve begun building a swing trading program that integrates diverse strategies, supported by a custom backtesting platform. The early results are highly encouraging.

By leveraging AI, I’m working toward adapting the Portfolio Shield algorithms to optimize the strategy through real-world backtesting simulations. While this process is ongoing, the technology now available positions us to achieve these enhancements efficiently. I’m eager to share further progress on this initiative and its potential to refine your investment strategy.

Please note that all strategies are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, with new funds invested according to your selected model at that time. To adjust your investment strategy, please notify us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six months or longer may be closed, and any applicable advisory agreements terminated.

We remain dedicated to your financial success. If you have questions or wish to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy further, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Additionally, please inform us of any changes to your financial circumstances so we can tailor our recommendations to your needs. Accurate and complete information ensures we provide the most effective investment guidance.

Thank you for entrusting us with your investments. We are committed to managing your Portfolio Shield with precision and care to help you achieve your financial aspirations.

Best regards,

Steven Van Metre

Despite a gradually slowing economy, several factors bolster a positive outlook for equities. Earnings expectations for this quarter are set at achievable levels, the trade war is coming to and end, and Trump’s tax bill has been enacted, all supporting market optimism. While investors anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut, it is unlikely before year-end unless labor market conditions weaken significantly. The Fed’s current focus on inflation suggests that only a softening labor market would prompt earlier cuts, which could pose challenges for stocks.

High-yield bonds delivered exceptional returns last month, significantly boosting the bond allocation. However, intermediate-term bonds showed no momentum and contributed little to performance. With negative momentum signals for intermediate-term Treasuries, we have removed them from the bond allocation for August.

For August, your portfolio reflects these updates: the equity allocation remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, consistent with last month, while the bond allocation is now entirely dedicated to high-yield bonds, with intermediate-term Treasuries eliminated. A minimal cash allocation of 0.3% is maintained across all models.

Given current market conditions, we anticipate the strategy will maintain its risk-on stance without hedging in the near term. Should market dynamics shift, we are prepared to adapt, but as long as equities perform strongly, the strategy will remain fully allocated.

In previous updates, I mentioned engaging a programmer to develop a custom rotational strategy. While those efforts did not meet expectations, I’m excited to share a promising development. Advances in artificial intelligence have enabled me to create sophisticated programs without extensive coding expertise. I’ve begun building a swing trading program that integrates diverse strategies, supported by a custom backtesting platform. The early results are highly encouraging.

By leveraging AI, I’m working toward adapting the Portfolio Shield algorithms to optimize the strategy through real-world backtesting simulations. While this process is ongoing, the technology now available positions us to achieve these enhancements efficiently. I’m eager to share further progress on this initiative and its potential to refine your investment strategy.

Please note that all strategies are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month, with new funds invested according to your selected model at that time. To adjust your investment strategy, please notify us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six months or longer may be closed, and any applicable advisory agreements terminated.

We remain dedicated to your financial success. If you have questions or wish to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy further, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Additionally, please inform us of any changes to your financial circumstances so we can tailor our recommendations to your needs. Accurate and complete information ensures we provide the most effective investment guidance.

Thank you for entrusting us with your investments. We are committed to managing your Portfolio Shield with precision and care to help you achieve your financial aspirations.

Best regards,

Steven Van Metre

In June, we shifted the equity allocation to a risk-on stance, fully deploying assets between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Both indices soared to record highs, and our strategy reaped significant gains from this upward momentum in stocks.

Despite signs of a slowing economy, several factors signal a bullish outlook for equities. A potential Federal Reserve rate cut in July, the resolution of the trade war, and the prospective passage of Trump’s tax bill are poised to drive further gains. Additionally, hedge funds’ short positions and fund managers’ available cash reserves strengthen the case for continued upward pressure on stock prices.

However, risks loom as earnings season approaches. Companies have been absorbing tariff-related costs, which could strain earnings. If these pressures prevent earnings from supporting current market valuations, the stock market may face the risk of a correction due to unsustainable multiple expansion.

To optimize long-term growth, we adjusted the strategy last month by reducing the frequency of its hedging mechanism. This change enhances the portfolio’s ability to remain allocated to equities over time while preserving its capacity to protect against market downturns.

High-yield bonds delivered strong returns last month, bolstering the bond allocation’s performance. With momentum shifting favorably, we’ve incorporated intermediate-term Treasuries into the bond allocation for July to capitalize on both declining interest rates and an expanding economy.

For July, your portfolio reflects these refinements: the equity allocation remains fully invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, consistent with last month, while the bond allocation now includes intermediate-term Treasuries and a reduced high-yield bond position, cut by roughly half. A minimal cash allocation of 0.3% is maintained across all models.

Please note that all strategies are rebalanced on the first trading day of each month. New funds will be invested according to your selected model at that time.

To adjust your investment strategy, please notify us before the next rebalance. Accounts with a zero balance for six months or more may be closed, and advisory agreements, where applicable, terminated.

We’re here to support you. If you have questions or would like to discuss your Portfolio Shield strategy further, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Additionally, please inform us of any changes to your financial situation so we can tailor our recommendations to your needs. Accurate and complete information helps us provide the most suitable investment guidance.

Thank you for entrusting us with your investments. We’re committed to managing your Portfolio Shield with precision and care to help you achieve your financial goals.

Best regards,

Steven Van Metre