Retail Sales came in at +0.1% MoM which is below expectations of a +0.4% MoM gain. Excluding autos, retail sales were expected to rise by +0.5% MoM but only managed a +0.3% MoM gain. Core Retail Sales also missed analysts’ expectations by showing a +0.1% gain for the month of August. One might think stocks … Read more
Asian markets surged higher as foreign investors felt optimistic about the potential for renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China. This also pushed U.S. stocks higher at open, as the major indices “gapped” up above an overhead resistance level. The optimism over settling the trade dispute was quickly shot down by President Trump, but … Read more
The stock market was flat for the day on above average volumes. Apple’s new iPhones weren’t enough to push Apple stock to new all-time highs. Treasury yields were down slightly on the day. This week will be the second largest Treasury auction in history, with $73 billion being sold off. Today’s reopening of last month’s … Read more
Stocks slide in early trading but bounced on news that the U.S. was reaching out to China for a new round of trade talks. Most likely this is an olive branch before the Trump Administration slaps another round of tariffs on China. As quickly as the markets moved up, they began to fade the news. … Read more
Stocks surged today but the more interesting news is in the bond market. Ten-year Treasury yields backed up to 2.97% which has been an area of strong resistance going back to June and August. A resistance level is where previous buyers or sellers have bought or sold. Markets frequently retest resistance levels to find out … Read more
Yesterday’s attempt to push stocks higher failed, but today’s hammering of volatility appears to be working as stocks are effortlessly moving higher. The financial media reported this morning that long-term Treasury yields were headed higher due to today’s upcoming three-year Treasury auction. I don’t think so… There is a record short position on long-term bonds, … Read more
U.S. stocks opened higher on news that House Republicans were proposing a second round of tax cuts to make lower individual rates permanent, to eliminate the maximum age for some retirement account contributions and to allow new businesses to write-off more of their startup costs. Only tech stocks and small-caps could hold their early gains … Read more
Corporations have pledged to repurchase $1 trillion of their own stock back this year, which is creating an opportunity for corporate executives to sell their shares to an indiscriminate buyer. In August, corporate executives cashed out over $10 billion of their own stock, the largest amount since November 2016. Year-to-date, corporations have purchased $850 billion … Read more
The big news was the August Nonfarm Payroll report which showed a strong headline number of +201k jobs created last month. June and July’s payroll numbers were revised down -50k, which took some shine off this month’s report. The birth-death model showed 104k jobs in August were to newly self-employed, which is a statistical number … Read more
The growth rate of the M2 Money Supply ticked up slightly to 4.02%, which has been decelerating since 2016. Be aware, historically when then the growth rate of the money supply falls below 3.70%, our economy experiences recessions and depressions. The recent money supply data has yet to take into account last weeks balance sheet … Read more