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Market Brief – Tuesday 11/17/20

Stocks fell in overnight trading then quickly gave up yesterday’s gains before buyers bought the dip. Treasury yields also fell in overnight trading and were holding their overnight drop in early trading.

Retail sales rose +0.3% in October and +5.68% from this time last year, missing expectations. Excluding food and energy, core retail sales rose +0.2% in October and the retail sales control group that feeds into the GDP calculation rose +0.1% in October.

Export prices rose +0.2% in October and improved slightly to -1.6% from this time last year. Import prices fell -0.1% in October and improved slightly to -1.0% from this time last year. The U.S. continues to export and import deflation.

Redbook same-store weekly brick-and-mortar retail sales fell -1.0% last week and improved to +1.7% from this time last year but remain well below their pre-pandemic levels.

Industrial production rose +1.1% in October and improved to -5.34% from this time last year as industrial production remains well below its pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing production rose +1.0% in October and the capacity utilization rate of factories rose slightly to 72.8% in October.

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to its highest level since 1985 as homebuilders remain wildly optimistic about the housing market while housing sentiment continues to trend lower.

Stocks closed lower on the day as buyers were unable to put up much of a fight. Treasury yields closed slightly below their overnight decline.

The American Petroleum Institute reported crude oil inventories as Crude: +4.174mm (+100k expected), Cushing: +176k, Gasoline: +256k (+300k expected), and Distillates: -5.024mm (-1.8mm expected). Crude oil fell in after-hours trading following the report.