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It’s Not the Bottom, Not Even Close

In the past four weeks, more than 16 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits and the number continues to rise with each passing week. Yet, Wall Street and most investors are more concerned that they just missed out on the bottom of what may be the shortest Bear market in the history of the … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 4/17/20

Stocks rallied during President Trump’s press conference last night but faded some of their overnight gains in early trading. Treasury yields followed stocks higher during the press conference but by market open, were headed below yesterday’s close as the bond market doesn’t believe the economy is going to be reopening any time soon. The S&P … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 4/16/20

Stocks started the day higher after today’s initial jobless claims report showed more jobs have been lost in the past four weeks than were created in the past ten years. Treasury yields fell in overnight trading with 30-year Treasury yields knocking on the door of 1.2%, which if broken, should see yields retest their all-time … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 4/15/20

Stocks shed yesterday’s gains in overnight trading and continued lower in early trading following this morning’s economic data dump. Treasury yields also fell in overnight trading, with 30-year Treasury yields down near 1.3% after holding resistance at 1.4%. Crude oil fell in early trading and broke below $20 per barrel. Mortgage applications rose +7.3% last … Read more

Market Brief – Tuesday 4/14/20

Stocks surged in overnight trading on better-than-expected China export data which shows the largest exporting nation is slowly coming back online. Stocks continued their overnight rally at the opening bell as investors attempted to drive Treasury yields higher but ultimately failed as 30-year yields remain stuck at 1.4%. Without yields rising to validate higher stock … Read more

Market Brief – Monday 4/13/20

After another volatile overnight session, stocks headed lower in early trading with Treasury yields falling slightly in early trading. Despite news of a production cut, crude oil was only up slightly in early trading. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to -0.4% in March and slowed to 1.5% from this time last year from 2.3% … Read more

When Will We Sell?

The most common question I get is, when will we sell the Treasury bonds? The real question may be, when will equities be cheap enough to buy? In Bear markets, when stock prices are falling, Treasury bonds are the easiest trade to make. When the Federal Reserve attempts to ease financial conditions, they do so … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 4/9/20

After falling in overnight trading, stocks rallied after millions of Americans filed unemployment claims last week and after the Fed extended its bailout program to include an additional $2.3 trillion in loans. After falling in overnight trading, Treasury yields rose on the same news but quickly ran into resistance near their recent highs. Initial jobless … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 4/8/20

Stocks rallied in overnight trading which pushed Treasury back up a bit. Investors were eager to reclaim yesterday’s late-day sell-off as buyers bid stock prices up in early trading. Treasury yields dipped in early trading ahead of today’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction. Mortgage applications fell -17.9% over last week with purchase applications falling -12.2% and … Read more

Market Brief – Tuesday 4/7/20

Stocks rallied in overnight trading in what is likely a continuing of yesterday’s attempt to squeeze computer-traded models that are currently deeply short stocks. It appears to be working as stocks were holding their overnight rally in early trading. After failing to drive yields higher during the cash session, sellers aggressively sold Treasuries in overnight … Read more