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Market Brief – Monday 12/31/18

New Year’s Eve is generally a quiet day for stocks as most professional money managers have taken a long weekend. Today will be the last day for tax-loss selling and portfolio rebalancing for the year. Foreign equities were up as China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in December, signaling a contraction in China’s manufacturing … Read more

Market Brief – Sunday 12/30/18

On Saturday President Trump spoke with President Xi regarding their issues with the trade spat. President Trump tweeted, “Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. [The] deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas, and points of dispute. Big progress … Read more

Potential New Year Opportunities

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve gotten calls from people who seemed surprised my prediction for a rapid stock market decline has come true. Understanding our complex monetary system leads to one conclusion – our monetary system was designed to periodically fail. While my research doesn’t say when the system will reach its next … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 12/28/18

In overnight trading, foreign markets followed US markets higher, which gave an early boost to US equities to start out the trading day. Treasury yields rose in overnight trading, but quickly reversed, and are back where they were in April 2017. Credit spreads or the difference between high yield and investment-grade bond yields are rapidly … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 12/27/18

Yesterday’s big move on Wall Street started to fizzle as some Asian market responded positively, but European markets didn’t. Treasury yields shrugged off the advance as 10-year Treasury yields held under their key resistance level of 2.80%. When US markets opened, equities and Treasury yields both opened lower. China’s industrial profits fell after nearly three … Read more

Market Brief – Wednesday 12/26/18

After Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin failed to reassure investors on Monday, President Trump tweeted that investors should buy stocks. Stock prices reacted positively while Treasury yields largely ignored his tweet. This week brings the remainder of $131 billion in Treasury auctions, an increase of $30 billion over last year. By the close of business on … Read more

Market Brief – Monday 12/24/18

Sunday afternoon, before the futures market opened, Steve Mnuchin, the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury announced that he called the CEO’s of the six largest U.S. banks to “confirm they have ample liquidity available for lending to consumer[s], business markets, and all other operations.” Mnuchin also confirmed, “they have not experienced any clearance or margin … Read more

Is There a Santa Claus Rally?

In 1897 Francis Church, an editor at a New York newspaper, the Sun, received a letter from Virginia O’Hanlon asking if there was a Santa Claus. Virginia’s father, a coroner’s assistant named Dr. Phillip O’Hanlon, encouraged his daughter to write the Sun and ask them the same question: Is Santa Claus real? He told his … Read more

Market Brief – Friday 12/21/18

Today is quadruple-witching day, where four major groups of options expire. Usually, quad-witching days are volatile, with traders last night suggesting the S&P 500 could move up 4% today. So far in early trading, the only move higher was after New York Fed President Williams said the Fed will review their balance sheet unwinding program … Read more

Market Brief – Thursday 12/20/18

Liquidity, or money sloshing around the financial system, has hit its lowest level since analysts have been tracking liquidity. Without any large buyers out there, any attempt to sell a large block of stock could rapidly move the market lower as it looks to find a buyer. When most people are long stocks and leveraged, … Read more