Going into last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, speculators increased their already record short positioning on U.S. Treasury bonds to a new record short position. Speculators and investors alike are betting ten-year Treasury yields are headed somewhere between 4-6%, yet they continue to run into an impenetrable wall that is preventing yields from rising past 3.1%. … Read more
Solar Cycles and Commodity Super Cycles About every eleven years agricultural commodity prices go straight up, but nobody seems to be able to offer a good reason as to why this phenomenon happens. After a great deal of research, I am on to something and I’ll share it with you now. This eleven-year cycle of … Read more
Asian equities moved higher, but European equities tumbled on news from Italy that they are targeting a budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP, which is higher than expected. Italian stocks and bonds got hammered. U.S. investors don’t seem too concerned about what is going on overseas as equities moved higher in the morning. Ten-year Treasury … Read more
Asian and European equities were down following yesterday’s Fed rate hike. Foreign equities have been falling as the Fed tightens, which is what is supposed to happen. U.S. equities quickly shrugged off yesterday’s post FOMC drop as stocks quickly recovered from yesterday’s losses. Treasury yields were higher in early trading but were flat in overnight … Read more
The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.25%, as expected, and the stock market had the proper reaction. When the Fed tightens the money supply by raising interest rates, stocks should fall, and Treasury bonds should rise. All major stocks indices were down slightly, and Treasury bonds rallied off their recent bottom. The … Read more
The stock market was quiet ahead of the Fed’s press conference tomorrow where the Fed is expected to raise the Federal Funds rate by 0.25%. The market will be watching for a change in language to determine if the Fed plans to be more aggressive with future rate hikes. Treasury yields moved higher but were … Read more
A new tax in the form of tariffs will be hitting American consumer’s pocketbooks in the near future as both the Trump Administration and China fulfilled their promises to implement another round of tariffs today. Rumors are swirling that the Trump Administration will be moving forward with a larger $267 billion tariff against China. Hopefully … Read more
China announced Saturday morning that they are cancelling the upcoming trade talks. Previously China proposed to send two mid-level delegations to the United States in hopes to ease trade tensions. China also stated that talks may resume sometime after the U.S. midterm elections in November. With Treasury yields jumping back to their recent highs, there … Read more
When Will the Stock Market Fall? The U.S. economy is officially experiencing the second longest expansion in history and most financial experts believe the economy will continue to grow for several more years. A typical modern-day expansion runs about every eight years, but now we are fast approaching year ten, with still the weakest economic … Read more
Who is buying stocks at their all-time highs? Corporations. Margin debt growth has dramatically slowed due to higher interest rates. Retail and foreign fund flows have also slowed significantly. Corporations continue to repurchase their stock to allow their executives to cash in on their lucrative stock options. When the last marginal buyers are corporations, investors … Read more