Trading volumes collapsed today as large money managers and traders wait for the election results. Retail investors continue to bid stocks higher based on all the articles showing how stocks tend to rally following midterm elections. While I haven’t had time to go back and look through the data points, I’m guessing not many of … Read more
Asian equities started the trading week down as China’s Caixin Composite PMI (factory survey) fell to its lowest level since February 2016, when the factory survey was on the edge of contraction. This is an indication we are winning the “trade war,” and also a sign that the Fed’s monetary tightening is affecting the global … Read more
There was an interesting discussion on FinTwit this weekend about how the BLS has been overestimating the number of new jobs created. Every February the BLS adjusts the previous year’s numbers based on the actual payroll tax withholding data. One expert who knew how the BLS makes this calculation felt there would be significant downward … Read more
Don’t get too excited about today’s jobs report even as the BLS reported +250k job created last month. What the media didn’t report is that 248k of those jobs were fictional jobs created under the self-employed birth-death model. The actual number of jobs created was 4,000. Average hourly wages increased 3.1% YoY, sparking concerns of … Read more
Experts and analysts are looking to Apple’s after-hours earnings announcement to save the stock market. So far, the earnings from Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (the other four in the FAANG stocks) have been disappointing. One company can’t hold the stock market up on its own, but Apple’s large weighting in the major indices can … Read more
Global stock markets got a boost as U.S. stocks were technically oversold and China is indicating they will stimulate their economy. The last time China stimulated their economy was back in 2016 when they used their foreign currency reserves to pull the global economy up as it was about to enter a recession. China doesn’t … Read more
Stocks started out the day surging higher as investors look to “buy the dip” in stocks as the market is flashing “oversold” conditions on a short-term basis. For the past several years buying the dip has been profitable, but right now it isn’t working. When examining trading volumes, I noticed that as stocks have sold … Read more
On what is being billed as a critical week for U.S. stocks, equities lurched in early trading after European equities were up and Asian equities were mostly down. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, or Core PCE, showed inflation held at +2.0% for September. Treasury yields faded their early move higher as inflation expectations moderate. Personal … Read more
The U.S. stock market is facing a critical week as the major indices are heading towards correction territory. Bulls are hoping seasonality comes into play, as stocks tend to rally following midterm elections and into the holiday season. They are also looking forward to corporate share buybacks resuming as the blackout period begins to fade. … Read more
If there was ever a day the stock market needed to rally, then today is that day. With the major indices giving up their gains for the year and all below their 200-day moving averages, a bearish signal, leveraged investors likely received delinquency notices from their brokerage firms last night. A delinquency notice, or margin … Read more