Weekly Economic Update 12-16-2016

The Fed has raised interest rates and with that, likely driven the last nails into the coffin of this expansion phase. Meanwhile speculators are borrowing money at record levels to drive up stock prices and other risk assets. Yet warnings signs of a recession are starting to show up in different areas of our economy. We know how bubbles end. For this and other economic news, along with my thoughts on when interest rates will start to fall, be sure to tune into this week’s update.

Bonus Section: A look at the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, a look at price levels on Gold Miners, an analysis of 10-year Treasury yields, macroeconomic indicators, percentage of stocks trading above their moving averages, total put/call ratio, charts from the recent Commitments of Traders report and more.

Weekly Update (13 min):

  • When the Dow Breaks…
  • Fed’s Outlook Not Inflationary
  • The Expansion is Ending
  • Recession Fears Loom
  • Getting Through the Next Recession
  • Odds a Recession is Imminent

Bonus (9 min) –

  • S&P 500 vs M1 Money Stock
  • iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) vs M2 Money Stock
  • US Housing Starts
  • Shiller S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio
  • Ten Year Treasury Yield Support Levels
  • Elliot Wave Theory (Brief)
  • Gold Miners (GDX) Support Levels
  • S&P 500 vs % of S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-day MA
  • S&P 500 vs % of S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-day MA
  • S&P 500 vs Total Put/Call Ratio Relative to its 20-day MA
  • Commitments of Traders – S&P 500
  • Commitments of Traders – 10 Year Treasury Yield
  • Commitments of Traders – US Dollar